Fantasy Premier League – Key Notes & Lessons Taken From GW5 by Bet Experts

Fantasy Premier League - Key Notes & Lessons Taken From GW5 by Bet Experts

MilosNS

September 2, 2022

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Written by: FPLijah

If you didn’t initially know, we actually had a gameweek that has come and gone by the time you read this article. Midweek deadlines often catch out so many of your friends, colleagues, and mini-league rivals, but unfortunately, in GW5, heading into the gameweek itself wasn’t an issue, as there wasn’t much to do transfer wise or even with regards to captaincy. Many serious FPL managers made a luxury transfer to save cash or even chose to burn a transfer which is considered insanity. I used the word ‘’unfortunately’’ as it would’ve been nice to have a slight edge/advantage over your rivals and to gain in overall rank, as well as in your mini-leagues.

As seen in the Team of Week for Gameweek 5 below, we’ve had a mixed bag of performers, with the only popular picks being Cancelo, Martinelli, and Haaland.

This article will highlight the key notes and lessons taken from the previous gameweek to help us decide on transfers, likely captaincy, and strategy. The information below will have a combination of the ‘eye-test’ as well as statistics, which encompasses the best of both worlds in the debate of ‘Grass FC’ vs. ‘Analytics FC.’

Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Brentford

The first match of GW5 saw Crystal Palace take on Brentford, with both teams looking great heading into this fixture. Although Palace had more efforts at goal, and more on target, Brentford had far superior chances, as seen below with xG, and with their 5 big chances in the match, compared to 0 from Crystal Palace.

xG:  0.98 vs. 1.43
Shots:  13 vs. 9
Shots on Target (SoT):  4 vs. 3
Big Chances (BC):  0 vs. 5

Zaha was back into the squad and look dangerous as he usually does. He took four shots in the box, and is definitely one to consider with the long-term injury to Rodrigo from Leeds. Zaha would be a direct replacement with one transfer, and although his upcoming fixtures are a little tricky, Zaha is fixture-proof and had added a bit of consistency to his FPL returns this season.

Toney had the highest xGI in the match with 0.82, yet is the 2nd most sold player heading into Gameweek 6, which I find crazy! His upcoming fixtures are brilliant as well, so I’m not entirely sure why the mass amount of casual FPL players are selling him. His fixtures can be seen below, and if you do already have him in, I suggest KEEPING.

Fulham 2 – 1 Brighton

A fairly even game in terms of football, but a lot depended on this game FPL-wise, with popular assets in Sanchez, Trossard, Gross, Dunk, and Mitrovic.

xG:  0.68 vs. 1.42
Shots:  10 vs. 7
Shots on Target (SoT):  3 vs. 3
Big Chances (BC):  2 vs. 3

As you can see above, the stats back up the eye test in how even the game was. Brighton looked a tad off it though, with just one shot between Gross and Trossard, which is well below par to what we’ve seen thus far this season.

Mitrovic had a strong game which has become standard now in any fixture. He took two shots in the box and created one chance, scoring the opening goal, which ruined the Sanchez and Brighton cleansheet (much to my own delight as I stupidly own Ward from Leicester). Andreas Pereira grabbed himself an assist to the delight of everyone who owned Reece James, as Andreas was autosubbed in for the missing James.

Dunk was highly transferred in for GW5, and unfortunately for him and his new owners, Dunk scored an own goal to make things worse for anyone owning Brighton defensive assets.

Mac Allister looked impressive again, scoring for Brighton, and had the highest xGI in the match with 0.82.

Southampton 2 – 1 Chelsea

Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea…. Well, it was yet another disappointing outing for the men in blue, their supporters, and those of us who own their FPL assets, apart from Sterling and Reece James owners. I say Reece James as news broke a couple of hours before the match that he did not travel due to feeling ill (not an injury!), and most of us had Andreas Pereira first on the bench to come in for him. James is expected back this weekend, but we’ll wait to see what Tuchel says in his press conference ahead of GW6.

Sterling has continued in tremendous form of late and is a great option FPL-wise, but he is at such an odd price point, that you’d have to break your team structure to bring the Englishman in.

xG:  1.10 vs. 1.10
Shots:  9 vs. 10
Shots on Target (SoT):  5 vs. 4
Big Chances (BC):  3 vs. 2

Statistics-wise, the game was pretty much even, with Southampton taking more shots on target and having one more big chance than Chelsea. The match was over in the first half, with all three goals scored before the first-half whistle. Southampton well and truly deserved their win, with goals coming from Lavia and Armstrong. I did see Lavia being sold ahead of GW5 as a luxury transfer to save £0.1m for many managers over social media, but that’s how FPL works, right? The moment you sell a player, they score.

Leeds 1 – 1 Everton

Leeds looked the better team in attack. However, the massive blow to Leeds and to FPL was that Rodrigo picked up a long-term injury and was substituted off in the 31st minute. He is definitely a sell, with Gross, Harrison, Trossard, and Zaha as direct replacements.

xG:  1.01 vs. 1.00
Shots:  14 vs. 7
Shots on Target (SoT):  5 vs. 2
Big Chances (BC):  2 vs. 3

A positive though is that Bamford is back for Leeds! Sinisterra was their goalscorer.

Gordon looked to be Everton’s most dangerous in attack, with one disallowed assist and two big chances. He was Everton’s goalscorer and had the highest xGI in the match. I personally would still stay away from Everton assets (possibly apart from Gordon, as he offers some decent value at his price point).

Bournemouth 0 – 0 Wolves

Nothing more exciting than a 0-0 during a midweek fixture, right?

Jokes aside, Wolves were the far superior team after the sacking of the Bournemouth manager following his 9-0 defeat against Liverpool.

xG:  0.42 vs 1.51
Shots:  5 vs. 17
Shots on Target (SoT):  2 vs. 3
Big Chances (BC):  0 vs. 2

Bournemouth does look like they will be the first to get relegated this season, but that isn’t how sport, and football in particular works. A lot can change in the next few months, and we’re only five gameweeks into the season. Despite Wolves’ superiority in shots, they only one more shot on target compared to Bournemouth.  I personally wouldn’t own any FPL assets from either team and for many of you who still own Neto, it may be time to move on.

Arsenal 2 – 1 Aston Villa

Total dominance by Arsenal, yet almost threw it away when Villa scored in the 74th minute (goal scored by Douglas Luiz), but in current form, Arsenal have this never say die attitude and scored just 3 minutes later.

xG:  2.56 vs. 0.45
Shots:  22 vs. 4
Shots on Target (SoT):  8 vs. 3
Big Chances (BC):  3 vs. 0

At the top of the table, Arsenal continues with their perfect start to the season, winning 5 in 5 for only their 4th time in Premier League history. The usual suspects were at it in full flow yet again. Jesus grabbed himself the opening goal and also missed one big chance, which could’ve easily seen him come away with a brace from this fixture. Martinelli then showed everyone why he offers the best value in the game at present, scoring the winner for Arsenal in the 77th minute. Martinelli is essential at his price point (even if priced higher, you have to have him at present).

Although he started the season poorly, Saka provided the assist to Jesus’ goal and was 2nd in xGI only behind Jesus himself.

Arsenal’s first true test will come this weekend when they face an in-form Manchester United. I do personally think that Arsenal will still come away with the 3 points, but we will wait and see.

Aston Villa are struggling at present, and matters will only get worse when they face a dominant Manchester City in GW6.

Manchester City 6 – 0 Nottingham Forest

Another gameweek, another Manchester City dominant display, another Erling Haaland hat trick.

xG:  3.32 vs. 0.66
Shots:  17 vs. 8
Shots on Target (SoT):  9 vs. 1
Big Chances (BC):  7 vs. 2

I would say who on earth can stop this team on current form, but if you look at the Premier League, Manchester City isn’t the team at the summit, but if we’re being honest, it’s just a matter of time.

Heading into GW5, there was very slight doubt about whether or not Haaland would start, with many (myself included) predicting that his rest will come in GW6. Many handed him the armband over Mo Salah, which saw him have the highest effective ownership at 178% in the Top 10k, compared to Salah’s 58.6%, shockingly. Not often do we see Salah with less than 100% EO.

Haaland did not disappoint those that handed him the captaincy, scoring a hattrick within the first half. He would’ve had an assist, but the goal was ruled out. The tricky thing heading into GW6 is whether or not Haaland will start, with the short turnaround and a UEFA Champions fixture shortly after GW6. If he played 90 in GW5, I’d be a lot more certain about him being benched, but he was subbed off in the 68th minute. I do think he will have the highest EO again, but for safety, I would captain Salah due to xMinutes.

Alvarez came into the team and played his first match for 90 minutes, and he looked impressive, scoring two goals. With the doubt over Haaland’s start, I personally may be looking into taking a punt on him at just £6.2m as my Rodrigo replacement with 2FT available.

Cancelo has been looking at my YouTube videos and reading these articles because I kept going on that he isn’t doing enough to justify his price, and what does he do? He scores a banger! Cancelo played much more advanced in GW5 and looked more natural at LW. I think he is a HOLD (even on a wildcard).

City plays an out-of-form Villa in GW6, and it could be another bloodbath.

West Ham 1 – 1 Spurs

Although West Ham were the better team in the match, beating Spurs in every stat as seen below, I do hope that you don’t have any of their assets in your team (not worth it in terms of value or FPL points).

xG:  1.24 vs. 0.63
Shots:  14 vs. 12
Shots on Target (SoT):  4 vs. 3
Big Chances (BC):  2 vs. 0

The focus will instead be on Spurs assets since they’re players that some of you may likely have in your squad.

Kane always gets himself into great positions, taking four shots in the box and coming away with an assist after an own goal was scored by Kehrer. Kane is definitely a captaincy option in GW6 as the Spurs face Fulham.

Son just doesn’t look like the guy we know and love FPL-wise. If you still own him, he is an easy sell. Kulusevski played quite deep but was still higher than Kane for xGI in the match, creating two chances. Perisic started and played 90 minutes, which means you’re back to doubting whether he starts in the following gameweek. Owning him will always be like this, so make sure you have a bench cover, or if you’re tired of the stress, then you’re going to have to sell him.

Liverpool 2 – 1 Newcsastle

A game of pure emotion, and it’s why we all love football and the Premier League. After Liverpool’s 9-0 victory against Bournemouth, Liverpool came into this fixture on a high. Add to that, Newcastle were missing key players in Wilson, Bruno, and ASM – however, this Newcastle team are the only team to take points off Manchester City, so it was a match that you’d expect would be difficult for both teams, yet entertaining, and it did not disappoint.

xG:  1.50 vs. 0.72
Shots:  23 vs. 5
Shots on Target (SoT):  6 vs. 2
Big Chances (BC):  1 vs. 1

Newcastle open the scoring in the 38th minute with Isak’s goal, ruining the Liverpool cleansheet and it was the worst start to the game from a Liverpool perspective, as well as for those of us on a Liverpool double-up in defense (Trent and Robbo).

Liverpool found a way back after a brilliant pass (assist) by Mo Salah to the in-from Firmino, who guided the ball into the back of the net. Matters were made worse for those of us with Trent and Robertson, as they were substituted off with 30 minutes still to go (at least they made the 60th minute mark).

As the match went deeper in, Newcastle players wasted as much time as they could (which is only natural after absorbing so much pressure from the Liverpool attack), but that just wasn’t enough. With the very last play of the game heading into the 98th minute, Liverpool had a corner and with that ‘never say die attitude’ Mohamed Salah tried to head the ball twice, with the 2nd coming off his should, and Carvalho hit it on the volley to score the winner! Absolute scenes!

At Salah’s effective ownership, those 10 points (20 if you’ve captained) massively reduced the damage done by Erling Haaland, and reduced it to just 7 points between the pair.

Some notes from the match:

Salah was massively involved but more creative, with six chances created. Salah has now created 21 chances this season, which is the most of any playerTrent and Robbo were quiet, hence their subs off the pitch with 30 minutes to spareDiaz was direct, taking four shots in the box (Jota and Darwin are available in GW6, so this could limit his minutes, as well as Firmino’s)Firmino is in tremendous form, and as I’ve said on social media and to my mates, “BOBBY IS BACK!”Isak was clinical on his debut, scoring 1 and 1 ruled offside (looks to be some player and to look out for)

Go behind the scenes for the best view of our dramatic win at Anfield on Wednesday night 🤩

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) September 2, 2022

Leicester 0 – 1 Manchester United

Much like Aston Villa, Leicester continues to struggle to grab the 3 points from a match. Stats-wise, they had a decent game and was on par with Manchester United, but the only thing that matters are the 3 points at the end of the day.

xG:  0.73 vs 1.55
Shots:  10 vs 9
Shots on Target (SoT):  2 vs 2
Big Chances (BC):  1vs 1

Sancho scored the only goal in the match, assisted by Rashford. Both were highest for xGI respectively, with 1.10 and 0.62.

Ward owners rejoiced as he grabbed himself 2 points, which was double what he usually gets in a match, as seen below

Sancho and Rashford are players to watch if Manchester United continue in this form. A true test will be in GW6 against Arsenal, and then we can assess whether or not to take the punt.

Final Thoughts

That rounds up the Key Notes and Lessons Taken from Gameweek 5. I hope it was informative and helpful. When making transfers, keep in mind that this is a very short turnaround for GW6 and there will be the odd benching or to for certain players.

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Author: Ryan Moore